In a recent virtual fireside chat, IEQ Capital welcomed Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of U.S. Public Policy at PIMCO, to share her expertise on the U.S. policy landscape following the 2024 election. Moderated by IEQ’s Managing Director Daniel Lee, the discussion shed light on what to expect as President Trump embarks on his second term and its implications for markets and the economy.
Ms. Cantrill began by analyzing the election results, noting that Trump’s victory, while anticipated, revealed unexpected gains in traditionally blue states. This shift, combined with narrow Republican majorities in Congress, will shape the administration’s ability to implement policy. Despite these constraints, she believes Trump’s administration is poised to make significant moves in areas such as trade, immigration, and deregulation.
One of the key areas discussed was tariffs, with Ms. Cantrill emphasizing that Trump is likely to resume a more aggressive trade stance, especially towards China. This could include immediate tariff hikes using existing mechanisms. While this aligns with Trump’s long-standing protectionist views, Ms. Cantrill pointed out the potential for inflationary impacts, as broader tariffs could increase consumer prices.
On domestic policy, an extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected, though possibly for a shorter duration to manage costs. This reflects Trump’s intent to solidify economic policies that align with his first term, while navigating the realities of a narrow majority in the House.
Regarding Federal Reserve independence, Ms. Cantrill reassured attendees that institutional guardrails remain intact, preventing any drastic changes until at least 2026. PIMCO anticipates continued rate cuts, with the Fed likely targeting a terminal rate of around 3-3.5%.
Ms. Cantrill also touched on the implications for specific sectors. Regulatory shifts could benefit industries like technology and energy, though traditional energy firms might face mixed outcomes due to Trump’s aim of lowering oil prices. On foreign policy, Trump is expected to push for resolutions in key geopolitical areas, particularly Ukraine and Russia, while reinforcing ties with Israel.
This discussion offered IEQ’s network valuable perspectives on how evolving policies could influence markets and investment strategies. We are grateful for thought leaders like Libby Cantrill who bring depth and clarity to these complex topics. At IEQ Capital, we remain dedicated to delivering expert insights and fostering informed decision-making to help our clients successfully navigate changing economic landscapes.
The opinions expressed solely represent the views of the respective speakers. Nothing expressed in these presentations should be viewed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment, nor creates an advisory relationship with IEQ Capital. Information presented is as of the date indicated, is not complete, and is subject to change. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of information and IEQ assumes no obligation to update or revise such information. Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and IEQ is not responsible for third-party errors, omissions or representations. The speakers may have a conflict of interest in discussing any particular investment because they may or may not own or have an interest in that investment. Investments require a high degree of expertise and involve a high degree of risk, including the risk that an investor can lose all of his or her investment.